Economists Raise 2025 Inflation Forecasts on Tariff Worries

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Economists raised their projections for U.S. inflation next year on tariff concerns and now expect one less interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve than they anticipated a month ago.

According to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists, the annual core personal consumption expenditures price index — which excludes the volatile food and energy categories — will advance 2.5% on average next year. That forecast for the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is higher than the 2.3% projection in last month’s survey.

While economists expect the Fed to lower rates on Dec. 18 for a third straight meeting, they are now penciling in just three more quarter-point cuts in 2025 — at their March, June and September meetings. By the end of 2025, the federal funds rate is projected to be in a 3.5% to 3.75% range.

“Tariffs are a big concern,” although some factors will help mitigate the impact, including some substitution for U.S.-made products and the strong dollar, said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

“Nonetheless, U.S. consumers will feel a squeeze on living standards, and U.S. exporters will be hurt by reprisals. As such, a higher inflation and slower growth environment looks probable,” the economist said.

Though recent business surveys uncovered a sharp pickup in optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, including less regulatory burden, other elements like higher tariffs and demand-conducing tax cuts risk keeping inflation elevated.

Xem thêm : Fed’s Focus Has Returned Firmly to Inflation

Bloomberg’s latest survey of 83 economists, conducted Dec. 11-16, also showed upward adjustments for growth in imports during the first quarter, indicating an expected scramble by some companies to stock up prior to a hike in tariffs — and the prospect of a strike at East and Gulf coasts ports early next year.

Forecasters largely kept their 2025 employment projections stable, with payrolls growth averaging an estimated 121,000 compared with the prior month’s 126,000.

Economists also modestly increased their 2025 economic growth projections. Forecasters see gross domestic product growth averaging 2.1% in 2025, up from last month’s 2% forecast.

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