November 2024: Pet food inflation continuing to decline

John Gibbons, of PetBusinessProfessor.com, shared insights on how year over year (YOY) monthly ‘petflation’ jumped to 2.9% from Octobers 2.0% in his November 2024 report.

But the 2.9% rate is 7.6% below the 1997>2023 average of 3.1%. Prices dropped -0.3% in October to November 2024, a price drop that has only happened six times since 1997. This being a large factor in the big November 2024 increase in ‘petflation.’

The national year over year monthly CPI rate of 2.7% is up from the previous 2.6%, but it is still 13% below the 22>23 rate. And 62% lower than the 21>22.

2022 compared to 2024

• U.S. CPI – Prices are -0.1% from Oct. The YOY increase is 2.7%, up from 2.6%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is Sep. The current rate is below 22>23 but the 21>24 rate is still +13.5%, 59.5% of the total inflation since 2019. Inflation was growing in October 2021, +6.8%.

• Pet food – Prices are +0.1% vs Oct. but -1.2% vs Nov. 23, up from -1.3%. They are still significantly below the Food at Home inflation rate, +1.6%. The YOY drop of -1.2% is being measured against a time when prices were 23.1% above the 2019 level but the current decrease is still more than the -0.9% drop from 2019 to 2020. The 2021>2024 inflation surge generated 97% of the 21.4% inflation since 2019. Inflation began in 2021.

YTD — 2022 compared to 2024

• U.S. CPI – The 23>24 rate is 3.0%, the same as October, but it is down 29% from 22>23, 63% less than 21>22 and 29% below the average YOY increase from 2019>2024. However, it’s still 20% more than the average annual increase from 2018>2021. 70% of the 22.7% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>24. Inflation is a big problem that started recently.

• Pet food – YTD inflation is 0.3%, down from 0.5% in Oct. and 97.3% less than the 22>23 rate. Now, it is also 96.9% lower than 21>22 and 75% below the average rate from 2018>2021. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate on the chart and remains in 2nd place in the 21>24 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 2022 and especially in 2023. 96% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>24.

Update: Pet food producer price index (PPI)

The Retail Price changes usually mirror the Dog and Cat PPI but lag slightly. They peaked in May 23, fell slightly in Jun>Aug, turned up in Sep/Oct, flattened in Nov, fell in Dec>Feb, rose in March, fell Apr>May, rose in June then fell in Jul>Oct, now up in Nov. There was a 0.9% PPI lift in February but stability in Mar>Sep, then a +0.1% in Oct. After the big drop in July, the Other Pet Food PPI rose in Aug. but fell in Sep>Nov.

Dog and cat food prices only increased 0.84% since March 2023, showing 20 months of stability.

Pet Food Retail CPI is -1.2% from November 2023, and 0.1% versus October 2024. The “Other pet food” category is -9.1% from November 2023.